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Strategic Outlook on Critical Materials - March 5th, 2008

KOBphoto GREG ZANETTI appearing as a consultant on KOB.COM

 

When the founding fathers fought the British, much of what was needed to prosecute the Revolution had to be brought in from Europe.  The upstart Americans had to import iron, gun powder, clothing, shoes, blankets and a host of other basic materials to keep the Continental Army viable. 

Compounding the problem was the fact that the British controlled the sea lanes.

Thus, after gaining independence, men like Washington, Jefferson, and Adams met and passed legislation designed to build America’s industry and wealth-production capability.  They never wanted the security of the nation to be in the hands of foreigners again.

Today though, that is exactly where we find ourselves.  Like Blanche Dubois, in A Streetcar Named Desire, the US military is now dependent “on the kindness of strangers” to fulfill its missions.

Recently, the Army told Congress the nation is short 23 of 40 critical materials needed for national security because we either don’t make them anymore, or don’t have enough of what we need. 

Energy is the first and most obvious example.  People are quick to forget that the US and its allies controlled 90% of the world’s oil during World War II.  Even with that advantage, it took over four years to bring the Axis to its knees.
The issue, however, is not limited to energy.  We haven’t mined cobalt since 1971, yet cobalt is used for magnets, stainless steel, jet turbines and gas turbine generatorsCuba and The Congo are the two countries in the world with the largest cobalt reserves and they may not part with their resource readily.

The sad story is that our mining industry has deteriorated across the board due to lack of investment, radical environmentalism, low cost foreign labor, and onerous regulations.

And while it is easy to say that the US Navy controls the sea lanes, so we can therefore get the materials as needed; there are three other issues that complicate that solution:

First, we do not control all the world’s land-based trade routes.  If you can’t get the materials to port, control of the sea lanes means little.

Second, while demand for natural resources is increasing due to the rise of China and India, production in key parts of the world is decreasing.  For example, South Africa faces routine electricity outages, causing mines to be shuttered for extended periods of time. The rest of Africa is in constant political upheaval making supply an iffy proposition at best.

Lastly, in South America Hugo Chavez’s inept political and economic policies have caused Venezuelan oil output to fall 40%.  Add to this the reality that Mexico’s largest oil fields are now feared to be in irreversible decline.

All of this has led to an increase in the price of strategic materials.  As a result, buying vast quantities of these materials during a time of war puts a strain on the US Treasury very quickly.  This comes at a time when the viability of the US dollar is in question and when debts and deficits are at record levels.  What if the suppliers won’t accept dollars?

This lack of self sufficiency presents both long- and short-term problems… problems General Washington never wanted his new nation to face again.  He knew then the wars of the future would be fought based on the decisions made in the present, which would be dependent on our collective memories of the past.  Let’s hope our memories are long.